Just took a look at Vita's sales numbers in Japan for last week, and they're not good. Again.
Over here, in the U.S., I don't expect great news for October sales when NPD data is released in a week or so. Assassin's Creed: Liberation came out after the close of the NPD October cycle, and there really weren't any significant releases for Vita for the period.
The question probably is: Does Vita break 60,000 units for October? It's not an impressive number, but it seems to be the base for movement-- up or down-- for unit sales. Over 60,000 means some strengthening, while less than 60,000 means that the platform is sliding back into irrelevance.
If you're looking for a healthy holiday season in the U.S. for the Vita, you're not likely to find it. The platform is not a priority in the handheld market, no matter what promotions Sony tries to run. As if competing with the more popular 3DS isn't hard enough, trying to compete for spend in a market that's leaning more and more towards mobile-- tablets and smartphones-- instead of traditional handhelds is a huge challenge.
I expect Vita to sell the lowest number of units of any current platform, outside of PlayStation 2 and PSP, over this quarter.